Interestingly enough, aside from my then "doom and gloom" commentary, the links presented in support of my work are even more relevant now than they were then as the predictions are coming true as I write this. The main linked article predicted the economic effects of the decline in global oil reserves - geopolitical friction and volatility in the oil markets - disruptions in the financial markets and subsequent increases in costs of staple goods production and delivery. It also commented upon the "housing bubble" being then quietly discussed so as not to marginalize the only market sector in the US that was believed to be keeping economic growth alive.

"The housing bubble is a perverse form of financial behavior. It's a consequence of capital desperately seeking a way to increase in an industrial economy that ceased to grow. America is no longer producing wealth in the conventional sense [ed. 79% service sector]. And so the housing bubble is a way for residual capital to produce wealth. But like all bubbles, it's a delusional thing that will probably end in tears."[1]

There was no mention, however, of the perverse commercial/industrial real estate financial behavior and that market break down may not be far off. Huge capital venture firms and REITS purchased and repurchased commercial properties over the past 8 years at outrageous prices - some just because their anchor was Publix - and the resultant property tax increases are passed on to the tenants. Those tenants can't sell $20 hot dogs just because they are located next to a Publix. Tenants fail, vacancies loom, income slides, investments/capital lost.

The other linked article from the original piece from May 2005 was to the "Hubbert Peak Oil Production" site that provides data, analysis and recommendations regarding the rate of global oil extraction. Since the time of the original article, the Hubbert site has decided to greet each visitor with the message, "Go See 'An Inconvenient Truth'", which seems to degrade some objectivity in their original cause - that of making Americans aware that global oil production is on the decline and the need for alternative energy sources.

"Without imports, the USA's domestic oil reserves would be exhausted in three years at the current rate of consumption. The Oil War option is losing favor. Technological breakthroughs will be too slow and voluntary conservation will be too shallow to avert widespread disruption of economic activity, especially transportation and consequently food."

"It would take one new nuclear power plant every week until 2050 to fill the oil gap. Minor detail, uranium shortages would emerge long before 2050, unless as yet unproven breeder reactors come on line soon."[2]

Yes, you guessed it - I am urging you to read the sources below and then reflect on how we still have done nothing to curtail our use of oil and how this further weakens our economy and requires us to "intervene" in the Middle East in order to protect the largest global oil reserves for our use. The first footnoted source directs you to a PDF of a Salon article stored elsewhere. I did this so you won't have to wade through the Salon site with your cookie preferences set to "bend over". If you feel this is some horrible moral affront, then Google "After the Oil is Gone, by Katharine Mieszkowski" and follow their link to the Salon article.

[1] - After the Oil is Gone, by Katharine Mieszkowski, Salon, May 14, 2005

[2] - Hubbert Peak of Oil Production

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1.23.2007